The Daily Bork

June 16, 2005

Plus, minus, what's the difference to a government that can't count?

So the NZ government has buggared up its Kyoto calculations...

Mr Hodgson, who is the convenor of the ministerial group on climate change, said projections at this time last year were for New Zealand to have a "surplus" of about 30 million tonnes on the targets that had to be reached under the protocol in the 2008 to 2012 target period.

However, this year's report was showing New Zealand would miss its target by 36.2 million tonnes, he said.

Mr Hodgson revealed the figures at a parliamentary select committee, saying he was "unhappy" the figures had flipped around.

National MP Nick Smith said carbon credits were selling for around $35 per tonne of emissions which meant the cost to the country of the miscalculation amounted to a "$1 billion mistake" or even up to a $2 billion error.

Mr Hodgson said Treasury would want to put the excess emissions on the Government's books as a contingent liability.

Rather than the $35 per tonne figure Dr Smith used, the minister said the current price was estimated at $15 per tonne.


Bwa ha ha ha. How on earth do you go from +30 million to -36 million? Easy, employ political advisors. The whole stupid scheme was sold to the gullible country by saying that, obviously, NZ will win because we have so much forest, so few people, blah blah blah. And now? Oh, we lied. But it's OK because we will fudge the numbers again by undervaluing the fuckup.

Mr Hodgson said there were a number of assumptions in the technical report which were "deliberately" more conservative than these had been last year and were partly behind the change.

Two factors mainly accounted for the change in the projections on emissions.

Emissions, particularly from transport, had grown as a result of the high performing economy, and there was a change in the way forest "carbon sinks" were assessed.

Forests that were planted in the early 1990s on land covered in scrub, which officials had thought was an allowable sink worth 19.8 million tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions, could not now be counted as a "Kyoto forest", the minister said.


So the initial estimate was not conservative enough. Uh huh, you mean it was pure spin. Emissions from transport due to the "high performing economy"??? Pull the other one, it's got bells on. Does anyone seriously believe a word coming out of his mouth???

And we *thought* all that forest would count, but didn't bother to check. What a load of arse. Anyway, what sort of dumbarse accounting doesn't account for all the forests??? Who the hell signed this piece of toilet paper?

Under the Kyoto Protocol, New Zealand has to return its emissions to 1990 levels by 2008-2012 or take responsibility for any excess by offsetting forestry sink credits or by purchasing or earning extra emissions units internationally.


Just out of curiosity, what happens if the majority of countries end up in this position and there are far too few credits to buy?...

Environment spokesman Larry Baldock said a long line of "Kyoto countries" were realising they would not be able to meet previous estimates of carbon credits.


Bwa ha ha ha.

Curiously, the article mentions nearly every party with a comment. But not a squeak from the Greens.

Well, they have a press release all ready. Basically stated they say it's OK, we'll just turn everything off come 2012 if it all turns to custard. They even cite the Pentagon... excuse my while I roll on the floor laughing my arse off. Greens... citing Pentagon... must breathe... can't breathe...

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