The Daily Bork

January 27, 2005

Kyoto dreaming on such a winter's day

Risk of temperature rises over eleven degrees
Temperaturen riskerar öka elva grader (Göteborgs Posten)

Den beräknade maximala ökningen är dubbelt så stor som tidigare studier kommit fram till.

The calculated maximum rise is double that of earlier studies.

Shades of panic setting in? At what point do people start switching off to the alarms? 11 degrees is already a bit of a stretch. Actually, I just read the article through again and there is NO TIME FRAME specified. I guess they will eventually be right, it is fairly likely that the temperature will go up by 11 degrees in the unspecified future.

Why is the rise double that of earlier studies? Were the earlier studies so flawed? Presumably the new study includes better modelling, however a leap of a factor of two indicates a large amount of uncertainty in the ability to model these things. Improvements of mature models tend to provide finer detail, not wholesale change. And why do these estimates always go up with each new study? Surely some improved models must include cooling processes that were previously unaccounted for? What increase do we expect on the next study? Surely not double-your-money again to 22 degrees.

En koncentration av koldioxid på över 400 ppm (miljondelar) kan bli farlig, sade dock en rapport i måndags. Rapporten kom från projektet International Climate Change Taskforce. I dag är koncentrationen 378 ppm och den ökar grovt räknat med två ppm om året.

A concentration of carbon dioxide over 400 ppm can be dangerous, according to a report on Monday. The report came from the project Internation Climate Change Taskforce. Today the concentration is 378 ppm and it is calculated to rise 2 ppm per year.

Hmm. 400 - 378 = 22 ppm. At 2 ppm per year that is 11 years, just a bit outside the time frame of the current Kyoto round (2012 I think?). Looks to me as if they are setting up for a new round of funding applications. What is magic about 400 ppm anyway, so much so that one can ignore concentrations much more important things like water vapour and methane?

De har kört över 60 000 simulationer för det framtida klimatet...

Därför ger inte heller två simulationer exakt samma resultat. Den lägsta beräknade värmeökningen blev två grader Celsius och den högsta elva grader...

They have conducted over 60000 simulations of the future climate...

Therefore no two simulations have exactly the same result. The lowest calculated warming was 2 degrees Celsius and the highest 11 degrees...

Wow, over 60000 you say? And yet no simulation produced a result of no warming, cooling or outrageously large warming? Sounds to me like the simulations have been fiddled to a degree (between 2 and 11 apparently).

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